ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country from July to September 2026, raising concerns over heat stress, water shortages, and increased climate-related risks during the peak monsoon season.
In its latest three-month outlook, the PMD said that prevailing oceanic and atmospheric conditions point towards a weaker-than-usual monsoon system. It noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase but is expected to shift towards a positive phase during the season. However, this transition is likely to occur late, limiting its impact on rainfall patterns over Pakistan.
The report further highlighted that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are showing a warming trend, indicating the possible development of El Niño conditions. Such conditions are typically linked to suppressed monsoon rainfall in South Asia, including Pakistan. The PMD added that these warming trends are expected to persist through the July–September period and may intensify further as the season progresses.
According to the forecast, most regions of Pakistan are likely to experience normal to below-normal rainfall, with the most significant shortfalls expected in Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and much of Balochistan. Slightly better rainfall conditions are anticipated in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and upper parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where precipitation may remain normal to slightly above normal.
Alongside reduced rainfall, the PMD has warned of consistently above-normal temperatures nationwide. The highest temperature anomalies are expected in northeastern Punjab and parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, with a strong likelihood of persistent heat conditions across Punjab, southern KP, eastern Balochistan, and western Sindh.
The department cautioned that the combination of heat and uneven rainfall could increase the risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous regions, particularly in northern areas where even normal rainfall may trigger rapid runoff. It also warned of urban flooding in major cities due to intense but scattered rain events.
In northern areas including Gilgit-Baltistan, upper KP, and Kashmir, rising temperatures are expected to accelerate snowmelt, which may increase river flows and raise the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Downstream areas could also experience higher water levels as a result.
At the same time, below-normal rainfall across most of the country may worsen water stress for key Kharif crops such as rice, cotton, sugarcane, and maize. The PMD said irrigation demand is likely to rise significantly, placing additional pressure on already strained water resources.
The outlook also highlights increased risks of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, along with the possibility of strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms that could damage crops, orchards, and vegetables. Farmers have been advised to take precautionary measures to protect agricultural output.
Furthermore, the PMD warned of intermittent heatwave conditions, especially in southern Punjab and Sindh, where prolonged high temperatures could affect public health and agriculture. It also recommended safety measures for urban infrastructure, including securing billboards and solar installations to reduce damage from strong winds and storms.
