By Maheen Sultan
The Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly elections 2026 are shaping up to be a highly competitive and uncertain political contest. Unlike previous elections where one party occasionally gained a clear upper hand, the current political environment suggests that no single party is likely to achieve an outright majority. Instead, the most probable outcome is a hung assembly requiring coalition formation.
The GB Legislative Assembly consists of 33 seats, and a party needs at least 17 seats to form a government. Historically, electoral outcomes in the region have been influenced by shifting political alliances, federal government relations, and strong local personalities. These factors are once again expected to play a decisive role in 2026.
Among the major contenders, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its aligned groups remain a significant force. PTI demonstrated strong performance in the 2020 elections, where it secured a leading position. Its appeal remains strong among younger voters and urban constituencies, particularly in Gilgit and surrounding areas. However, internal divisions and weakened organizational unity have reduced its dominance compared to previous years. This fragmentation may limit its ability to convert vote share into a clear majority.
The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) continues to maintain a stable political presence in Gilgit-Baltistan. While it may not generate sweeping victories, PPP’s strength lies in consistent support in parts of Baltistan and rural districts. It is also widely viewed as a party capable of forming coalitions, which increases its chances of playing a central role in government formation after the elections. PPP’s disciplined political structure makes it a reliable coalition partner for other parties.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is also expected to perform competitively, particularly in constituencies where federal influence and development narratives resonate strongly. PML-N tends to perform better when it is aligned with the federal government, and this advantage may help it secure a respectable seat count in the 2026 elections. However, like other major parties, it is unlikely to secure an absolute majority on its own.
A crucial factor in GB elections is the role of independent candidates and local political groups. Unlike mainstream party politics in Pakistan’s larger provinces, GB elections are heavily influenced by local personalities, tribal affiliations, and constituency-specific issues. Independents often win multiple seats and later join larger parties, effectively deciding which coalition forms the government.
Political analysts broadly agree that the 2026 election will likely result in a fragmented assembly, where no single party dominates. The final government formation will depend on post-election alliances, negotiations with independents, and the political alignment of smaller groups. Federal-level political influence may also shape coalition outcomes, as has been seen in previous GB assemblies.
In conclusion, the GB Elections 2026 are not expected to produce a clear winner. Instead, the contest is likely to result in a coalition government formed through post-election bargaining, with PTI, PPP, and PML-N all playing important but incomplete roles. Ultimately, independents and alliance-building will determine who governs Gilgit-Baltistan in the next term.
