ISLAMABAD (Web Desk) – Pakistan has emerged as the main contributor to rising poverty across the Middle East, North Africa and Afghanistan-Pakistan (Menaap) region, with nearly half of the region’s population living in extreme poverty concentrated in the country, according to the World Bank.
The World Bank, in its latest regional economic outlook, said poverty in the Menaap region remained above pre-pandemic levels and was continuing to increase, making it an outlier globally.
The bank estimated that about 48% of people in the region living below the $3-a-day poverty threshold were in Pakistan. Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen collectively accounted for much of the remainder.
Pakistan’s poverty situation has deteriorated following a series of economic and climate-related shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the devastating floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation and a prolonged period of economic adjustment.
According to the World Bank, Pakistan’s poverty rate at the $3-a-day threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points between 2018-19 and 2024-25. At the $4.20-a-day threshold, poverty rose by 3.2 percentage points during the same period.
The bank said the latest estimates placed poverty at or above 20% in Pakistan, Djibouti, Syria and Yemen.
Across the wider Menaap region, around 14.3% of the population was living below $3 a day in 2024, compared with 10.4% globally. At the $4.20 threshold, the regional poverty rate stood at 26.9%, against 18.9% worldwide.
The World Bank projected Pakistan’s economy to grow gradually, with GDP growth expected to rise from 3.2% in fiscal year 2024-25 to 3.7% in FY2025-26 and 3.8% in FY2026-27.
It said services, manufacturing and livestock activity were expected to provide support to economic growth despite higher import, commodity and transportation costs.
However, inflation and pressure on external accounts remain concerns. The bank projected Pakistan’s current account deficit at 0.1% of GDP in FY2025-26, widening to 0.8% in FY2026-27.
The fiscal deficit was estimated at 2.6% in FY2025-26 and is expected to increase to 3.5% in the following fiscal year.
The World Bank also warned that food insecurity remained a serious concern in several countries across the region, including Pakistan. It said a stronger-than-usual El Niño weather pattern expected later in 2026 could intensify food-price pressures and disproportionately affect poorer households.
Pakistan could be particularly vulnerable because changes in weather patterns may affect monsoon conditions, agriculture and food prices.
The bank also highlighted risks arising from the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Higher oil and commodity prices could increase inflationary pressures in oil-importing economies, including Pakistan.
The country could also face pressure through weaker remittance flows from Gulf economies, reduced fiscal room and higher borrowing costs if geopolitical tensions persist.
The World Bank said the broader regional economic outlook remained highly uncertain and would depend significantly on the duration and intensity of geopolitical disruptions.
