By Mushtaq A Sarwar
The global chessboard of diplomacy is constantly shifting, and at times, these moves create curious alignments and unexpected rivalries. A striking example of this was seen recently during heightened tensions between Pakistan and India, when Turkiye openly voiced its support for Pakistan. In a swift and calculated response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, en route to the G7 summit in Canada, spent two days in Cyprus—Turkiye’s long-standing rival. His visit, the first by an Indian premier in two decades, was no coincidence. Cyprus’s President Nikos Christodoulides warmly welcomed Modi, declaring the moment a “new chapter of strategic cooperation without limits.”
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This situation reveals a fascinating diplomatic web: Pakistan and India remain bitter rivals; Turkiye and Cyprus, likewise, are long-standing adversaries. Turkiye’s support for Pakistan places it in opposition to India, while India’s deepening friendship with Cyprus serves as a counterweight to Turkiye’s regional ambitions. Adding further complexity, both India and Cyprus maintain close ties with Israel—another country Pakistan does not recognize.
Prime Minister Modi’s foreign policy has always reflected a clear pattern: he pursues the enemies of his enemies, and courts the friends of his rivals, with persistence and precision. His outreach to Pakistan’s traditional allies, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, was not about replacing Pakistan’s role but about diluting it—enough to ensure that, in times of Indo-Pak hostilities, these Arab nations would hesitate to side openly with Islamabad. His strategy with Cyprus follows the same logic.
India’s growing engagement with Cyprus is no diplomatic accident. It’s part of a broader geopolitical design aimed at unsettling Turkiye, just as India’s deep ties with Israel and investments in Afghanistan and Iran were aimed at counterbalancing Pakistan. Modi’s outreach to Cyprus is a quiet yet deliberate maneuver to exploit Turkiye’s vulnerabilities.
Cyprus itself remains divided between two ethnic communities: Turkish Cypriots in the north, who declared the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” in 1983, and Greek Cypriots in the south. Since Turkiye’s military intervention in 1974 to protect Turkish Cypriots from Greek-led violence, tensions between Turkiye and Cyprus have simmered. India has seized this historical fracture as a diplomatic opportunity, discreetly building economic, military, and strategic ties with the Greek Cypriot south.
Modi’s recent visit to Cyprus solidified this effort. India offered cooperation in technology, defense, and education, while Cyprus, in turn, pledged support for India’s international ambitions. On the surface, these may seem like benign bilateral gestures, but in reality, they’re pieces in a far larger game.
Turkiye, already juggling pressure on multiple fronts—Syria, Armenia, Greece, and the Kurdish issue—now faces the prospect of India opening a new front in the Eastern Mediterranean. Should India deepen its defense cooperation with Cyprus, it could present Turkiye with serious challenges over maritime boundaries, energy reserves, and regional influence. Notably, Cyprus will assume the rotating presidency of the European Union on January 1, 2026—a role that could allow it to further frustrate Turkiye’s EU accession ambitions, especially with India cheering from the sidelines.
Meanwhile, India and the EU are working towards finalizing a free trade agreement, a development that adds weight to India’s growing presence in Europe. Using Cyprus as a diplomatic bridge, India is positioning itself to counterbalance Turkiye’s influence in both Brussels and the Mediterranean.
The larger question is: to what extent can India harm Turkiye by empowering Cyprus? The answer lies in Turkiye’s broader geopolitical vision. Ankara seeks to strengthen its role in Central Asia through the concept of the “Turkic World.” Any successful attempt by India to block Turkiye’s entry into the EU or restrict its regional influence would be a significant strategic blow.
In contrast, Pakistan and Turkiye are drawing closer. Both nations recently agreed to expand their defense cooperation. Their alliance, built on deep-rooted cultural, religious, and historical ties, is more than just a political convenience—it is a genuine partnership that has withstood the test of time.
This growing bond is not just unsettling for India; it is also being closely watched by Western powers, wary of a potential Islamic bloc taking shape. India, sensing this, is using Cyprus as a geopolitical pawn to isolate Turkiye and elevate its own standing in Europe. For New Delhi, a deeper engagement with Cyprus offers not just diplomatic leverage against Ankara, but also a platform to strengthen ties with Europe—particularly at a time when EU-Turkiye relations remain strained.
In international affairs, alliances are forged in the crucible of mutual interest. India’s friendship with Cyprus is not rooted in shared values but in shared strategic goals—namely, curbing Turkiye’s growing influence due to its alignment with Pakistan. But India may be underestimating the depth of the Turkiye-Pakistan relationship. Unlike the transactional nature of India’s ties with Cyprus, the Ankara-Islamabad axis is a bond of brotherhood and shared history.
If India seeks to isolate Turkiye by leveraging Cyprus, it may inadvertently strengthen the very alliances it hopes to weaken. In the end, this is more than just a contest between nations—it is a clash of visions, values, and strategic priorities. Only time will tell which king will prevail on this complex global chessboard.
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