The sector contributes 24 per cent to the national GDP and provides 37 per cent of employment opportunities in the country
By LCCI President Mian Abuzar Shad
We, the Pakistanis, proudly tell the world that Pakistan is an agricultural country, and the claim is correct because more than half of our population is directly or indirectly connected to the agricultural sector. The sector contributes 24 per cent to the national GDP and provides 37 per cent of employment opportunities in the country. However, if timely and effective policies are not made to address the severe environmental challenges facing the country, the sector’s share in national production might decrease significantly in the near future. Luckily, we have fertile land where various fruits, vegetables, and crops are grown. Our high-quality agricultural produce not only meets domestic needs but also earns substantial foreign exchange through exports. However, the severe climate changes affecting the country have directly influenced every sector of the economy, including agriculture. During the current year, 2024-25, a decline in the output of wheat, rice, and other major crops is expected, which could pose challenges for food security in the country.
The wheat crop holds a lifeline status for Pakistan as it plays a major role in meeting the food requirements of the country. However, the severe climate changes faced by the country pose substantial threats to our wheat output, and if immediate attention and emergency steps are not taken, the situation could become unmanageable. In terms of wheat production statistics, during 2023-24, there was a fast increase in production, and our farmers produced 31.4 million tons of wheat, which was 11.6 per cent higher compared to the previous year’s 28.2 million tons. This increase was attributed to favorable weather, government support, and an expansion in the area under wheat cultivation, which rose from 9.0 million acres in 2022-23 to 9.6 million acres in 2023-24. However, due to the fast growing population and unstable climate conditions, this production is making it difficult to meet national needs. Despite this rise in production, our average per-acre wheat yield is 3.3 tons, which is below the global standard. If we compare with other countries in the region, China is the world’s largest wheat producer, with an annual production of over 137 million tons. The per-acre wheat yield in China is up to 4.8 tons, attributed to modern agricultural methods, research and development, and government support. Similarly, in 2023, India’s wheat production was about 110 million tons, nearly four times that of Pakistan. The per-acre yield in India is about 3.5 tons, which is higher due to modern agricultural techniques and government assistance. To increase our per-hectare yield, we must opt modern farming methods, support farmers, and invest significantly in research and development.
Due to the current dry season, it is said that wheat output during 2024-25 may see a decline, posing a risk to our food supply with effects felt nationwide. Recently, Pakistan has worked hard to reduce reliance on imported wheat. Thanks to increased domestic production, wheat imports decreased from $958 million in 2022-23 to $235 million in 2023-24. However, if production declines this year, we might need to import large quantities of wheat again, increasing the import bill and putting pressure on the national budget.
Given these anticipated challenges, the government must provide full support to wheat farmers to ensure they have access to resources that can help them deal with climate threats. For example, subsidies for quality seeds, especially hybrid seeds, and fertilizers can help farmers enhance their productivity even in harsh weather conditions.
Water management is also a crucial factor in wheat production, especially during dry seasons, where continuous water availability becomes a challenge. The agricultural sector’s water supply in the country depends on rainfall and glacier melt. Due to climate change, irregular rainfall and rapid glacier melting create water management challenges, as we lack sufficient water reservoirs. Through the platform of the Lahore Chamber, we have consistently emphasized the need for building reservoirs, including the Kalabagh Dam. This would prevent millions of cubic meters of clean water from being wasted into the sea each year and could be stored for agricultural and power generation needs, which is also a major factor in increasing business costs.
The government is required to consider investing in irrigation systems. Introducing wheat varieties that can be grown in drought conditions and improving modern farming techniques will be key steps in mitigating climate impacts. Farmers need financial support to cover production costs, and the government should provide easy loans specifically for wheat farmers.
Protecting an essential crop like wheat is crucial for Pakistan’s food security, economic stability, and the well-being of the population. A decline in wheat production will not only affect the lives of farmers but also burden consumers with higher prices due to potential shortages, impacting sectors like the poultry industry. Therefore, the sector demands immediate government attention to avert any potential risks. By supporting our farmers and preparing for climate challenges, we can mitigate such threats, but we urgently need a wide-ranging climate adaptation planning that prioritizes the needs of farmers.
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